Examine reveals how a lot site visitors will increase when e-bikes are banned


A research printed final week within the scientific journal Nature Vitality studied the consequences of site visitors and journey time in a metropolis when micromobility choices like electrical scooters and e-bikes are banned. The outcomes documented precisely how a lot site visitors elevated because of individuals switching again to private automobiles as an alternative of smaller, extra urban-appropriate automobiles.

How e-bike use impacts site visitors

The research, titled “Impacts of micromobility on automotive displacement with proof from a pure experiment and geofencing coverage,” was carried out utilizing information collected in Atlanta. The research was made attainable because of the metropolis’s sudden ban on shared micromobility gadgets at night time. That ban supplied a singular alternative to match site visitors ranges and journey instances earlier than and after the coverage change.

The ban occurred on August 9, 2019, and restricted use of shared e-bikes and e-scooters within the metropolis between the hours of 9 p.m. and 4 a.m.

The research’s authors used high-resolution information from June 25, 2019, to September 22, 2019, from Uber Motion to measure modifications in night journey instances earlier than and after the coverage implementation. That created a window of study of 45 days with and with out shared e-bike and e-scooter use at night time.

The research discovered that on common, journey instances for automotive journeys in Atlanta throughout night hours elevated between 9.9-10.7% instantly following the ban on shared micromobility. For a mean commuter in Atlanta, that translated to an additional 2-5 minutes per night journey.

The authors additionally concluded that the influence on commute instances would seemingly be increased in different cities throughout the nation. In accordance the research, “primarily based on the estimated US common commute time of 27.6 minutes in 2019, the outcomes from our pure experiment indicate a 17.4% improve in journey time nationally.”

The research additionally examined journey instances round occasions, utilizing main sporting occasions on the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta as the important thing research space.

In line with the research:

The timing of the ban coincided with Main League Soccer season. Given the extra concentrated journey patterns throughout sporting occasions, we might look forward to finding a bigger congestion impact from the banning coverage as in contrast with our recurring mobility estimates. In keeping with this, we discover a rise in journey time of 0.886 (s.e. 0.169) minutes per mile throughout soccer sport days. For instance, for a suburban resident who lives a mean of 13 miles away from town, the ban produces a rise in journey time of 11.9 minutes in returning dwelling from the soccer sport, a considerable 36.5% improve in journey time.

Shared electrical bikes and e-scooters cut back site visitors for everybody.

The research went on to think about the financial influence of that added congestion and elevated journey time. Because the authors defined,

Though a 2- to 5-minute delay for night commuting and a 12-minute delay for particular occasions might seem like a minor inconvenience, the price of extra time in site visitors shortly provides up when aggregated throughout massive commuter populations.

The financial influence on town of Atlanta was calculated at US $4.9M. The research estimated this influence on the nationwide degree might be within the vary of US $408M to $573M.

Apparently, the whole thing of the research’s information comes from earlier than the COVID-19 pandemic, which performed a significant function in selling using shared micromobility. An identical research carried out at the moment might discover a good larger influence on congestion, journey instances, and financial influence on cities.

Atlanta road picture credit score: Lauren Holly

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